Australian Men’s Open Tennis Final Stage Picks

Our betting analyst thinks Scotland’s Andy Murray is the value bet for Australian Open Men’s Tennis Championship! :

There are four men left standing in Melbourne as the Australian Open reaches its semi-final stage. They are all under pressure, but for different reasons.

Rafael Nadal is under pressure because nobody’s body can withstand, or should be asked to withstand, the sort of punishment Nadal’s game asks of his body. Nadal’s was the longest odds of the big four to win at Melbourne, with Bet365 pricing him at +600 when the tournament began. People weren’t sure his body could endure the trial.

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Roger Federer, one of the most effortless, silky players that the game has ever seen, is under pressure because no-one can hold back Old Father Time. While a lot of sports stars go into sudden, sharp declines, Federer still looks as dangerous as he always did.

It’s just that when it comes to the clutch, he doesn’t deliver like he used to. He’s just that split-second or half-inch behind where he was deadly accurate before. Has Federer more majors in him? He himself thinks so. He may be wrong.

Novak Djokovic is under pressure because the best player in the world only ever has one way to go. Novak Djokovic arrived at Melbourne an even money favorite, having enjoyed a season for the gods last year.

Andy Murray is under pressure because he’s never won a Grand Slam event. He’s been to three finals and five semis, but he’s never got past that level. And after a while it’s reasonable to wonder if he ever will.
In terms of betting value though, Murray is the bargain pick to win the thing. If someone puts a gun to your head and asks you who’ll win it you say Djokovic, of course, but he’s no real value at so short a price. Not least as he looked like he might be slightly injured during his quarter-final against David Ferrer.
Roger Federer’s short price is based on past glories, and Nadal is the longshot of the four because of fears over his fitness. Nadal is a temptation at +500 because his natural talent is greater than Murray’s but the draw is in Murray’s favour. There is a very real chance that whoever wins the mouth-watering semi-final between Nadal and Federer will have nothing left in the tank come the final.

All four are under pressure but Murray is the only one who can use the pressure to his advantage, because he’s the only one of the four whose pressure releases if he wins. Whoever wins, Nadal stays hurt, Federer’s still getting older, Djokovic has only one way to go.
Andy Murray is a man born again if he can win this weekend in Melbourne. That and the attractive price make Andy Murray the pick for the Men’s Australian Open 2012 at +450 with Bet365 or BetOnline (Us-friendly sportsbook).

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