NFL Conference Championships Picks

Our betting analyst makes his picks for the NFL Conference Championship Games. He is 5-3-0, .625, in the playoffs so far.

The more you think about the AFC Championship Game the more fascinating it becomes. Baltimore is an eight point underdog with Bet365 and BetOnline, but how much has public support of the Patriots inflated that line?

People have heard all year that Brees, Brady and Rodgers are the elite of the NFL. Brady is the only one of those three left standing, and he’s got three rings already. Joe Flacco looked awful against Houston, and his comments before the game suggested he was feeling the pressure – the single worst thing a quarterback can do.

But here’s the thing. The Texans’ defence is a serious outfit that can bring serious heat. The Patriot defense is the exact opposite. How much pressure will they able to bring on Flacco?

Certainly not as much as the Ravens will bring on Brady. New England is 6-1 all-time against the Ravens, but that one Baltimore win was in the playoffs, when the Ravens sacked Brady three times and forced three interceptions. Not Tom’s most terrific day at the office.

The arrival of Rob Gronkowski brings the Patriots passing game back to what it was like when Randy Moss played for New England. If the Patriots offence gets into rhythm the Ravens will not be able to keep up. But if Ravens D can get after Brady like they did in that playoff game two years ago they are fully capable of covering a big number. Baltimore +8 at New England with BetOnline is the pick in the AFC Championship Game.

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As for the NFC Championship Game, after the amazing win over New Orleans the Niners find themselves in the same position as the Beatles after they finished recording Sgt Pepper – how in the hell do you follow that?

San Francisco is a -2.5 point favorite at home against the New York Giants. The half-point is interesting. A -3 line would suggest that the teams would play at pick’em on a neutral field. -2.5 means the Giants have a slight edge.

What is that edge? Well, the Giants have been there before, and that makes a difference. Eli Manning has delivered on his early season suggestion that the Giants were as good as anyone out there. And their momentum is huge.

The Niners’ momentum is pretty strong too, of course. The San Francisco defence terrorized Drew Brees all day last Saturday. It was genuinely incredible. But it’s very hard to hit that high again, and the defence spent a very long time on the field – will they be gassed for the Giants? They’re both fine teams, but the value is with the Giants, even allowing for that half-point. New York Giants +2.5 at San Francisco with Bet365 is the pick for the NFC Championship Game.

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